What if there was a war and nobody reported it?

PART I: IRAQ

Victory achieved

by Clifford F. Thies

President Obama has thusfar been given a pass on the wars he inherited and the war or whatever you call it that he got us into in Libya. The mainstream media report no news regarding troop levels, casualties, whether we are winning or losing, or even what winning would mean in these places. In this, the first of four parts, I will describe the situation in Iraq. In follow-up installments, I will do the same for Afghanistan, Libya and Yemen.

In Iraq, the United States did not withdraw according to the 16 month timetable that candidate Obama promised. Rather, in accord with an agreement negotiated with the Iraqi government during the prior administration, U.S. forces withdrew from the cities of the country in June 2009, except that some U.S. personnel remained at joint security stations in the cities as "trainers." U.S. forces withdraw completely from the country by August 2010, except that up to 50,000 "trainers" could remain in the country. Those "trainers" are to be withdrawn by December of this year.

From a peak of 900 fatalities and 6,000 wounded per year during 2006-2007, U.S. casualties began falling in 2008, and continued to fall through 2010, when they have leveled off at about 60 fatalities and 300 wounded per year. Casualites among Iraqi security forces and civilians show similar trends. In terms of reducing the violence, and buying time for the new government of the country, the "surge" conducted by the prior administration, and the follow-though conducted by the current administration has been successful.

On the other hand, it is not clear that the new government is yet capable of conducting its affairs without outside assistance. The U.S. commander describes the current security situation as mixed. The Iraqi government debates a new agreement with the United States allowing a continued presence of U.S. military forces within the country, even as radical Muslims threaten renewed violence if Americans, whom they describe as "infidels," remain in the country.

The economy of the country has not recovered to its pre-war position. Oil production constitutes the only significant source of revenue for the country. Per capita income remains very low by global standards. Unemployment is very high. For many, the only job opportunity is to join the Iraqi security forces. The country still suffers from the emigration of skilled workers, especially doctors and engineers, and religious and ethnic minorities are fleeing the country.

Putting aside the problem of radical Islam, the situation in Iraq is about as good as it might be expected, and perhaps not so different from the situations in South Korea or Taiwan immediately after those places were stabilized. In those places, a bit more than a generation was required from the flowering of democracy. Today, we look at South Korea and Taiwan and see shining examples of what is possible with democratic government and market-oriented economies. But, for many years, these places were authoritarian, curropt and poor.

What throws a monkey wrench into Iraq is radical Islam. Radical Islam is so hateful and prone to violence, that it is not clear that outsiders can help with security while the country works it way through its domestic problems. And, it is not clear that the Radical Muslims will not take over soon after we depart. The outcome in Iraq, as to whether the country will proceed down a road that will eventually result in the flowering of democracy will depend on whether the moderate Muslims who have remained in the country will be able to outlast the radical Muslims.

The way to look at Iraq is that we, the United States, have done what we could do. This has required many years of secrifice, most especially by the men and women of our all-vounteer military forces. National Guardsmen and Reservists have been deployed, in some cases multiple times. Young adults are today serving in Iraq who were mere youths at the outset of the war. We, as a nation, have soldiered on. We have achieved our victory. Like a parent raising a child, we have given Iraq the opportunity to fulfill its potential. But, as to whether Iraq will use its opportunity well is for it to decide.